UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a general election on 4th July 2024 has sparked considerable discussion about the timing and political motivations behind his decision.
First, it could be a tactical move to prevent the right wing Reform UK party from organising more effectively, thereby limiting their impact at the polls. An election this July prevents them from raising more funds and finding politically effective or high-profile candidates.
Second, Sunak and his Cabinet might have previously held back from a Summer election in the hope that better economic news could give them room to offer a tax cutting Autumn Statement as the springboard to an October election. But an analysis from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the weekend suggested the UK had no fiscal room whatsoever for such action, making the rationale for waiting until October redundant.
Instead, the PM will hope to capitalise on recent slight improvements in economic indicators, and paint them as a glimmer of hope vs an unknown Labour Party who could halt the recovery in its tracks by raising taxes.
Third, an election in the colder months could carry risks of domestic issues such as an NHS crisis or a hard reminder of the increased costs of heating bills which have been so difficult for millions of households during the continued cost of living crisis over recent years.
Fourth, the bunker mentality at Number Ten might have convinced Sunak that he could win this, or at least get a hung parliament that he could lead via a coalition. He will hope that after months and years of anti-Tory feeling in the UK, giving the voters the chance to look Labour in the eyes and properly scrutinise Sir Keir Starmer’s policies and personality at a time when many voters still don’t have an opinion on Labour’s vision, might “make it real enough” for some swing voters to come back to the Conservatives.
Finally, there’s speculative commentary around Sunak’s personal motivations, including theories about future career moves outside politics. Perhaps he knows the financial grass is greener on the other side of Number Ten and wants to get on with earning the big bucks – again. Perhaps he’s just as sick of it all as the rest of us and wants to put this wounded animal of a Conservative Party into a period of Opposition where it can regroup and find out what it wants to be after years of tax rises, division and political strategies that have been terrible for UK PLC, such as Brexit and the associated abandonment of London as a global financial hub.
The next few weeks will prove how far the UK electorate will go to punish the Tories for their failures of the last few years as well as their levels of excitement for Labour and others. It will also reveal the extent of recent political turmoil in Scotland, with the SNP in decline after a decade of dominance in Edinburgh.
One thing is for sure – we are a world away from Boris Johnson’s thumping win of 2019 when Labour under Jeremy Corbyn was on the retreat and Johnson was looking at a possible 10 year stint as PM, with the world – or at least the Home Counties – at his feet.